BY STEVE KOCH

This is the second in a monthly series tracking how Florida’s new state investment in Florida-bred purses translates into actual earnings. Click to view the January 2026 installment. 

The State Investment

The Florida Legislature moved $5 million into racetrack purses for Florida-bred racehorses in 2026 – $4 million to Gulfstream Park and $1 million to Tampa Bay Downs.

Some of that state funding was already flowing in prior years. After accounting for preexisting allocations and reserves, the net new investment is $4.8 million at Gulfstream Park and $536,000 at Tampa Bay Downs.

FTBOA is tracking how this investment translates into additional earnings for Florida-breds.

The Framework

We start with what Florida-breds earned at each track before the new state money arrived. That’s the baseline.

Adding the new state allocation to the baseline gives us the expected 2026 Florida-bred earnings. Because earnings don’t accumulate evenly through the year – some months have more racing, richer stakes, or different field compositions – we proportion the expected trajectory to match the historical weekly pattern rather than assuming a straight line. Baselines are adjusted where schedule changes affect comparability.

GULFSTREAM PARK

• Adjusted 2025 baseline: $28.8 million

• Plus net new state allocation: $4.8 million

• 2026 Expected Florida-Bred Earnings:

$33.6 MILLION

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

• 2024-25 meet baseline: $8.2 million

• Plus net new state allocation: $500,000

• 2025-26 Expected Florida-Bred Earnings:

$8.7 MILLION

Gulfstream Park’s baseline is adjusted to remove Q1 Wednesday race dates (discontinued in 2026) and the discontinued Florida Sire Stakes 2-year-old series.

Reading the Charts

Each track has a four-panel dashboard. Panels one and two show Florida-bred cumulative (racemeet-to-date, or year-to-date) market share by participation rates (% of all runners), and earnings (% of all earnings), compared to prior seasons’ patterns.

Panels three and four track Florida-bred earnings against state-enhanced expectations. Panel three shows cumulative earnings building through the year. Panel four, labeled “Year-to-Date vs Baseline”, is the key chart. It isolates where the new state investment produces additional earnings:

  • Red represents expected incremental earnings from the state allocation, proportioned across the year.
  • The blue line exhibits how far actual Florida-bred earnings have risen above the prior-year baseline – a gap that widens or narrows depending on weekly performance.

Where the blue line tracks the red area, the new state investment has translated to additional Florida-bred earnings. If the blue line falls short, the new money may have not yet materialized.

Context: Participation and Earnings Share

Florida-bred participation rates are rising at both tracks. Compared to the same period last year, Florida-bred starters at Gulfstream Park have grown 7% year-over-year (after controlling for Q1 Wednesday race dates that were discontinued in 2026). At Tampa Bay Downs, they’ve grown 9%.

Gulfstream Park

Florida-breds represent 29% of starters through February, matching the 2025 baseline. However, earnings share at 22% dips below the prior year.

GULFSTREAM PARK: FL-bred Market Share
February 2026 Update

1. Market Share: Runners

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2025 Baseline) and one in blue (2026 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Gulfstream Park Florida-bred Market Share February 2026 Update, Market Share: Runners.

2. Market Share: Earnings

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2025 Baseline) and one in blue (2026 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Gulfstream Park Florida-bred Market Share February 2026 Update, Market Share: Earnings.

Tampa Bay Downs

Florida-breds represent 33% of starters through February and 36% of earnings. Both metrics are tracking above the 2024-25 baseline.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS: FL-bred Market Share
Meet-to-Date Through February 2026

1. Market Share: Runners

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2024-25 Baseline) and one in blue (2025-26 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Tampa Bay Downs Florida-bred Market Share Meet-to-Date Through February 2026, Market Share: Runners.

2. Market Share: Earnings

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2024-25 Baseline) and one in blue (2025-26 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Tampa Bay Downs Florida-bred Market Share Meet-to-Date Through February 2026, Market Share: Earnings.
Results: Earnings vs. Expectations

Tampa Bay Downs

At Tampa Bay Downs, Florida-breds have earned $4.75 million – $343,000 ahead of baseline and $54,000 ahead of the expected pace.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS: FL-Bred Earnings vs. Expectations
Meet-to-Date Through February 2026

3. Cumulative Earnings ($8.7 M Expected)

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2024-25 Baseline), one in red (2025-26 Expected), and one in blue (2025-26 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Tampa Bay Downs Florida-bred Earnings vs. Expectations Meet-to-Date Through February 2026, Cumulative Earnings ($8.7 M Expected).

4. Meet-to-Date vs. Baseline ($536K Expected)

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2024-25 Baseline), one in red (Expected Incremental), and one in blue (Actual vs. Baseline). This chart is featuring the data for the Tampa Bay Downs Florida-bred Earnings vs. Expectations Meet-to-Date Through February 2026, Meet-to-Date vs. Baseline ($536K Expected).

Gulfstream Park

At Gulfstream Park, Florida-breds have earned $5.07 million – essentially flat against baseline and $846,000 behind the expected pace.

GULFSTREAM PARK: FL-Bred Earnings vs. Expectations
February 2026 Update

3. Cumulative Earnings ($33.6 M Expected)

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2025 Baseline), one in red (2026 Expected), and one in blue (2026 Actual). This chart is featuring the data for the Gulfstream Park Florida-bred Earnings vs. Expectations February 2026 Update, Cumulative Earnings ($33.6 M Expected).

4. Year-to-Date vs. Baseline ($4.8M Expected)

A grayscale line chart centered against a white background, with one line of information highlighted in black (2025 Baseline), one in red (Expected Incremental), and one in blue (Actual vs. Baseline). This chart is featuring the data for the Gulfstream Park Florida-bred Earnings vs. Expectations February 2026 Update, Year-to-Date vs. Baseline ($4.8 M Expected).

Gulfstream Park and the Florida HBPA have acknowledged their responsibility to expand opportunities for Florida-breds, though implementation has yet to materialize.

MONTHLY UPDATES

We will update this report monthly, comparing actual Florida-bred earnings against the anticipated trajectory.

Steve Koch

Steve Koch is Administrative Vice President and industry economist for the Florida Thoroughbred Breeders’ and Owners’ Association.

Return to the March 17 issue of Wire to Wire

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