EDITED OAKLAWN PARK PRESS RELEASE
Hot Springs, Ark. — Florida-bred Strategic Risk takes the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ in the $1 million Grade 3 Southwest on Friday for 3-year-olds at mile-and-a-sixteenth at Oaklawn Park, due to the rescheduling of last weekend’s card due to weather.
Sitting seventh on the Feb. 2 NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll in the three-year-old category, Strategic Risk, trained by Mark Casse, hopes to cinch his second win in 2026. The colt by Noble Bird out of Strategize, by Florida-bred Afleet Alex has a record of three wins and one third in six starts with $392,300 in career earnings.
The Florida-based Casse capped a sensational holiday racing season going 11 for 23 streak in 13 days when Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic finished 1-2, respectively, in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Jan. 3. The 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones was Oaklawn’s first Kentucky Derby qualifying race.
Strategic Risk won the paceless Smarty Jones by four and a half lengths under Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano, with Silent Tactic, in his dirt debut, a closing second. Both horses are owned by John C. Oxley and Strategic Risk was bred under John Oxley Living Trust while Silent Tactic was bred by Don Alberto Corporation.
“We’re excited about him,” Casse said, referring to Strategic Risk. “Obviously, the Southwest is the same as the Smarty Jones. We’re not going to get any more ground. We’ll be excited down the road when we can get some more ground. The difference between him and Silent Tactic a little bit is I think Javier can position him, where if they are going fast, he’ll sit back. And if they’re not going fast, he’ll be very close to the pace.”
The Southwest attracted a hefty 14 entrants when the race was drawn Jan. 25. But at least one horse, Litmus Test, the 5-2 program favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, will be scratched, the Oaklawn racing department said Wednesday morning.
Strategic Risk faces holdovers including the speedy D’code for trainer H. Ray Ashford Jr., Buetane (Baffert), Liberty National (Kenny McPeek), Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen) and Silent Tactic for dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, who is seeking his third consecutive victory in a Kentucky Derby points race at Oaklawn.
Immediately following the Smarty Jones, Casse said Silent Tactic would be pointed to an entry-level allowance spot. But Casse said that race in the new condition book was a mile, so he was re-routed to the Southwest because of the longer distance. Silent Tactic entered the Smarty Jones off a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth Nov. 2 at Woodbine in Canada.
“He got one easy breeze and then he ended up running really well in the Smarty Jones,” Casse said. “The track was playing pretty speed favoring at that point and time, and he was one of the few horses that actually rallied. The good news is we feel like he’s come back and trained even better, so we’re looking for him to possibly move up a little in his next start. It looks like there’s a fair amount of speed.”
D’code (3-1) will be making his stakes and two-turn debut after a front-running eight and-a-quarter length victory Dec. 14. The son of deceased sprint champion Speightstown, D’code recorded the fastest six-furlong time in Oaklawn history for a 2-year-old stopping the clock at 1:09.57.
“It’s a tall order, but the horse really seems to be doing good,” Ashford said. “He acts like he can run that far. Getting the right fractions, obviously, will help a lot, too. I would think he will be forwardly placed. That looks like his running style. There are unknowns, but we think he’s good enough to try.”
Buetane will be making his two-turn debut for Baffert, who has won the Southwest a record six times. Buetane exits a runner-up finish in the seven-furlong Grade 2 San Vicente Jan. 10 at Santa Anita in his 3-year-old debut. Buetane closed his 2-year-old campaign with a second to champion Ted Noffey in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs Sept. 1 at Saratoga.
“Going two turns, we’ll see what he does,” Baffert said. “He’s doing really well. He’s worked well. We’ll see how he fits in with those.”
Liberty National will be making his 3-year-old debut after finishing a closing second, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth Dec. 20 at Fair Grounds.
McPeek said Liberty National was bothered at the start, which cost him several lengths.
“If you watch the gallop out on the Gun Runner, he’s three (lengths) in front another sixteenth past the wire,” McPeek said. “He was probably five lengths the best horse.”
Soldier N Diplomat will be making his 3-year-old debut after finishing fourth in the Hopeful and third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at a mile-and-a-sixteenth Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs in his last start.
Other Southwest entrants include Baytown Dreamer, Sleepingonfreedom and Rancho Santa Fe, third, fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Smarty Jones.
The Southwest headlines a 12-race card that begins at 11:30 a.m. CST. Probable post time for the Southwest, the 11th race, is 4:40 p.m. The Southwest is Oaklawn’s second of four Kentucky Derby qualifying races and will offer 42 total points to its top five finishers (20-10-6-4-2, respectively) toward starting eligibility for the first leg of the Triple Crown.
The Southwest was originally scheduled to be run Jan. 31, but Oaklawn moved its Jan. 30, Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 programs to this week following a winter storm that closed the track for training for nine days. The Southwest, which debuted in 1968, is being run on a Friday for the first time.
The rescheduled weekend offers the richest purse structure in North American racing, highlighted by championship-caliber fields. The American Beauty Stakes is rescheduled to Sat., Feb. 7, joining the Grade 3 Bayakoa, which will also feature the highly anticipated 2026 debut of Nitrogen, the reigning Eclipse Award–winning three-year-old filly.
Oaklawn’s Kentucky Derby points series continues with the $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes March 1 and the $1.5 million Grade 1 Arkansas Derby March 28. Casse won the 2025 Arkansas Derby with Sandman.
Tammy A. Gantt contributed to this story.
Return to the February 5 issue of Wire to Wire
