BY BROCK SHERIDAN
Florida-bred Strategic Risk tries to recuperate off a poor outing last out in the Grade 3 Southwest and take the next step on the Road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) in Sunday’s $1 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Ten 3-year-olds will go a mile-and-a-sixteenth in the Rebel in pursuit of 105 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, allocated to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 basis.
Trained by Mark Casse, Strategic Risk currently sits at No. 19 in the Kentucky Derby standings with 10 points and $179,500 in non-restricted stakes earnings. Last year, Baeza needed 37.5 points to scratch into the Run for the Roses.
A victory by Strategic Risk would also earn Oxley a $5,000 Florida Thoroughbred Breeders’ and Owners’ Association Export Incentive as the breeder.
Strategic Risk earned his points with an impressive four-and-a-half-length victory in the $250,000 Smarty Jones (Listed) at Oaklawn Park on January 3 but the John Oxley homebred could not repeat in the Southwest at Oaklawn on February 6, finishing tenth of 12.
Casse told the Oaklawn Park press office that he thought the off day in the Southwest may have been a result of missed training. The mile-and-a-sixteenth Southwest was delayed six days because of a winter storm in late January, leading Oaklawn Park officials to close the track for training for nine days in late January.
Although the Casse-trained Silent Tactic won the Southwest after finishing second in the Smarty Jones, the trainer said Strategic Risk did not respond as well to schedule change.
“It affects every horse different,” Casse said. “That’s the only excuse I could give him. So, for that reason, we did a little bit more with him.”
Strategic Risk has had two five-furlongs works at Oaklawn since the Southwest, the last on February 20 when he clocked the distance in 1:00 flat, the fourth fastest of 19 that morning.
The Smarty Jones victory and Strategic Bird’s pedigree suggests distance should be no concern. He is by Noble Bird, a multiple graded-stakes winner at nine furlongs and further; out of Strategize, by Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1)-winning Florida-bred Afleet Alex.
Strategic Risk has won three of seven career starts, including a nine-length romp in the $300,000 In Reality, the mile-and-one-sixteenth leg in the male division of the FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes at Gulfstream Park in November. He has career earnings of $417,300.
He has post six Sunday and Javier Castellano will have the return mount. They are 12-1 on the morning line.
In addition to a rematch with stablemate Silent Tactic, who is 9-2 in the program, Strategic Risk also faces Blackout Time from the barn of trainer Ken McPeek.
Blackout Time makes his first start since finishing second to 2025 champion 2-year-old male Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at eight-and-a-half furlongs at Keeneland on October 4.
A nine-and-three-quarter-lengths winner of a one-mile maiden special weight in August in his second start, Blackout Time is the 8-5 morning line favorite.
The son of Not This Time has earned $210,691 for BR Thoroughbreds, Lance Gasaway and Magdalena Thoroughbreds and will be ridden from post two by Brian Hernandez Jr..
Cristian Torres rides Silent Tactic, a son of Tacitus who was second in the Grade 2 Grey Cup at Woodbine as a 2-year-old, from post seven.
Others set to line up in the Rebel are Bravaro with Francisco Arrieta named to ride, Flavien Prat takes the reins on Litmus Test, Class President will have John Velazquez up, Emmanuel Esquivel will guide Honey’s to Blame, Rancho Sante Fe has Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the call, Keith Asmussen rides Time for Music and Solder N Diplomat will have Jose Ortiz in the saddle.
Return to the February 28 issue of Wire to Wire
