Monitoring the State’s Florida-Bred Investment

The Florida Legislature added $5 million to support purses for Florida-bred racehorses in 2026 – $4 million to Gulfstream Park and $1 million to Tampa Bay Downs.

We start with what Florida-breds earned at each track before the new state money arrived. That’s the baseline.

Adding the new state allocation to the baseline gives us the expected 2026 Florida-bred earnings. Because earnings don’t accumulate evenly through the year – some months have more racing, richer stakes, or different field compositions – we proportion the expected trajectory to match the historical weekly pattern rather than assuming a straight line. Baselines are adjusted where schedule changes affect comparability.

Each track has a four-panel dashboard. The first two panels show Florida-bred market share; participation rates, and share of earnings, compared to historical patterns.

The bottom two panels track cumulative Florida-bred earnings against expectations. Panel four – “Year-to-Date vs Baseline” – is the key chart. It isolates where the new state investment is producing additional earnings:

• The red shaded area represents expected incremental earnings from the state allocation, proportioned across the year.
• The blue line exhibits actual Florida-bred earnings above the prior-year baseline.

Where the blue line tracks the red area, the state investment has translated to additional Florida-bred earnings. If the blue line falls short, the new money has not materialized.

We also track Florida-bred participation and earnings share to provide context for results.

Gulfstream Park – Florida-breds represent 30% of starters (steady with prior years) and 20.3% of earnings (consistent with the historical range for January).

Tampa Bay Downs – Florida-breds represent 32.8% of January starters (up from 30.3% last January) and 37.7% of January earnings (up from 36.6% one year ago).

We will report monthly, comparing actual Florida-bred earnings against the expected trajectory.